Goldman Sachs said on WednesdayLimitlesscasinonodepositThey no longer expect OPEC+ to announce a partial lifting of its voluntary production cuts at its June meeting. The adjustment is based on a recent unexpected rise in crude oil inventories, which led them to cut their chances of increasing production in June to 37 per cent. The Goldman Sachs model predicts that although no final decision has been made, Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply is expected to remain at 9 million b / d in July, down from the previous forecast of 9.2 million b / d.

In the report, Goldman Sachs looked forward to the future of Brent crude futures, predicting that prices would remain in the range of $75 to $90 a barrel in most cases and that prices would average $82 a barrel in 2025. It is worth noting that the price of Brent crude fell below the $84 a barrel mark on Wednesday.

In addition, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned in a speech on Tuesday that OPEC+ is still studying whether to increase oil production.

"it always depends on the current situation and the balance between supply and demand," Mr Novak said. Everything is being analyzed. Now, you don't need to predict anything, you just need to see how the market feels. OPEC+ participants are constantly monitoring the situation, which is our plan for the second quarter, and we and our colleagues agree that these voluntary production cuts can be adjusted if necessary to increase supply. This is an ongoing process. "

OPEC+ plans to hold a meeting on June 1, when it will discuss whether to continue the production reduction strategy in the second half of the year. It is widely expected that Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ may choose to keep existing oil production unchanged for the next three months.

Since the beginning of the year, the generally expected tight oil supply and reduced inventories have not become a reality. If OPEC+ officials want to increase production in a market where oil prices continue to rise, they may be frustrated. Current crude oil inventories, futures prices and calendar spreads are not significantly different from those of a year ago, further suggesting that OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production significantly.

It is worth mentioning that in the latest short-term energy outlook report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly lowered its forecast for oil prices this year and next. EIA estimates the price of Brent crude at $88 a barrel in 2024, up from $89 a barrel, and $85 a barrel in 2025, compared with a previous estimate of $87.

EIA also expects some OPEC+ producers to continue to limit oil production at this stage after voluntary production cuts expire at the end of June.

Nonetheless, OPEC+ may consider canceling some of the production cuts introduced last year to prevent further production growth in countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, thereby avoiding losing more market share. However, in the current market environment, unless OPEC+ is willing to make a large strategic shift, increase production and accept possible lower prices, any increase may only be symbolic.