Newsletter summary

Soda ash supply rises for a short timeEarncryptofreegamesInventory decline to support the market; glass 09 contract rose after May Day, but faced with insufficient demand pressure. Concern: soda ash 09 contract to recover the five-day moving average, glass 09 contract to stand firm at the 1600 mark.

Text of news flash

[the recent trend of the soda market is strong, but the demand for float glass is poor or put pressure on the market] the supply of soda ash has risen briefly due to the resumption of the plant, but the inventory has continued to decline due to the demand for light soda. As a result, the price of soda ash market has entered the game stage after rising recently. At present, the soda market as a whole maintains a strong pattern, but considering the poor demand for float glass and sufficient replenishment in the previous period, it is expected that the price of heavy alkali will accumulate to a small extent, which will put some pressure on the soda market. Investors should pay attention to whether the soda ash 09 contract can recover the five-day moving average, and pay attention to the maintenance, downstream replenishment rhythm and capital movements. [glass market 09 contract rose sharply on the first day after the holiday, but the subsequent demand power was insufficient] after the May Day holiday, the glass 09 contract rose more than 4% in the first trading day, but the next trading day was under pressure. Although the glass cost end support is strong, the capital side also has the help, the spot market appears to fall after the festival, the downstream replenishment progress accelerates the end. Trading in the main production and marketing areas in North China remained stable, but due to the influence of the weather in some parts of the south, the progress of shipment was blocked, resulting in the accumulation of glass inventory. It is expected that there is not enough power for demand to rise in the later period, but the cost side still forms a certain support for glass prices. If the glass 09 contract can stand firm at the 1600 integer mark, then the strong market pattern is expected to continue. Investors need to pay attention to sales, costs and capital movements. In terms of market review, soda ash 2409 contracts rose more than 2% after the May Day holiday, closing at 2227 yuan / ton on May 7. The spot price of Shahe heavy alkali is 2150 yuan / ton, and the basis is enlarged to-77 yuan / ton. The main contract of glass rose nearly 5%, closing at 1604 yuan / ton on May 7, while the spot price of North China glass was 1580 yuan / ton, with a base difference of-24 yuan / ton. Technically, if the glass 09 contract can stand firm at the 1600 integer mark, then the market will be able to maintain a strong pattern. Fundamental analysis shows that soda ash plant fluctuations led to a slight increase in supply, but due to enterprise maintenance expectations, production is expected to shrink, providing some support to the market. The demand of soda ash enterprises maintains a high level, but the turnover of heavy alkali is weak because of the high inventory of float glass enterprises. The production and marketing rate of soda increased and the inventory continued to decline, but the phenomenon of heavy alkali accumulation appeared. The net import of soda ash increases month by month, but it has a limited impact on supply and demand, mainly affecting market expectations. The supply of float glass is stable, but in terms of demand and inventory, inventory accumulates due to lack of sales power. The improvement of production and marketing in North China drives the market, but the production and marketing in central and southern China is not good, coupled with the influence of weather factors, the phenomenon of float glass accumulation is obvious. In the future outlook, the soda ash market maintains a strong pattern, but we need to pay attention to the demand for float glass and market pressure. Although the glass market rose sharply on the first day after the festival, the follow-up demand power is insufficient, and investors need to pay close attention to the market dynamics.